Jefferies Equity Research predicts a significant increase in memory prices over the next few quarters, with no major relief expected before 2028.
The firm expects memory prices to increase by 40 to 50 percent in the third quarter of 2026, followed by an additional increase of 30 to 40 percent in the fourth quarter.
Thereafter, the upward pressure is projected to continue with year-on-year growth of 40 to 45 percent in 2027. An improvement is expected in 2028, but only with limited price reductions of about 15 to 20 percent.
What is Jefferies predicting and what is causing the memory price crisis
The Jefferies forecast offers some of the most cautious memory pricing predictions to date. The numbers reported by Wccftech outline the following trajectory:
- Prices to increase by 40 to 50 percent in the third quarter of 2026,
- Additional growth of 30 to 40 percent in Q4 2026, and then 40 to 45 percent year-on-year growth in 2027.
- 2028, prices are expected to improve modestly, rising by 15 to 20 percent as production capacity increases.
- If these projections are accurate, a memory module that costs $100 today could cost more than $200 by the end of 2027.
The pressure on memory prices is driven by demand for AI data centers, with chipmakers prioritizing higher-margin orders for AI infrastructure over standard consumer DRAM and NAND.
This variation differs from typical memory market cycles, which are typically affected by supply constraints. Currently, hyperscalers in a demand-driven situation make long-term commitments that tie up production capacity that might otherwise be available to the consumer market.
Micron recently confirmed $22 billion of long-term commitments from customers, with other memory makers like Samsung and SK Hynix in a similar position.
Why Chinese memory didn’t help and how consumer devices are being affected
Former Samsung boss Kyung-hyeon Kye once predicted that the crisis could end soon due to the growing manufacturing capacity of Chinese producers.
However, reports suggest that Chinese memory chips from manufacturers like CXMT are not selling at significant discounts. Industry analysts say vendors have told them CXMT’s prices are on par with Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, eliminating expected price relief from Chinese expansion.
This pressure on memory prices is already affecting consumer prices across various product categories:
- Apple raised the prices of its iPad, Mac, HomePod and Apple TV last week, with the MacBook Neo rising from $599 to $699.
- Microsoft announced that it will raise the prices of Xbox Series S and Series X by at least $100 starting August 1.
- Sony has also raised the prices of the PS5, with the 2TB PS5 Pro now costing $899.
- Valve offered the Steam Machine for $1,049, about $300 more than its original target price.
- Looking ahead, smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 15 percent in 2026 due to higher prices and weak demand.
- The PC market is expected to decline by 11.3 percent.
If Jefferies’ forecasts are correct, pressure on consumer device prices will continue to intensify through 2027 rather than ease.
What should users do as memory prices keep rising?
Users planning major hardware purchases should consider purchasing sooner rather than later, as prices are expected to rise further through Q3 and Q4.
It may also be worth looking at refurbished or pre-owned equipment, which have stable prices for now but could see increases as the secondary market changes.
Additionally, sticking with current devices longer aligns with broader trends of extended replacement cycles.
When purchasing memory and storage, carefully reviewing your needs can help avoid the impact of price increases, especially because smaller configurations can delay or mitigate those increases.
For PC builders, RAM and SSD upgrades are the components most directly affected. Purchasing memory before Q3 can result in significant savings.
Jefferies’ forecast is in line with recent signals from hardware makers. Microsoft reports paying two and a half times more for memory now than it did at the end of last year and expects costs to double again by the end of 2027.
Apple also notes that it has never experienced such a rapid increase in component prices. Recently, the Steam Deck increased in price by 50%, partly due to memory costs.
The memory crisis is shaping up to be one of the major consumer technology stories of 2026. Whether Jefferies’ projections will be accurate will largely depend on how quickly demand for AI infrastructure stabilizes and whether new manufacturing capacity can come online.
For now, users should expect continued pressure on device prices until at least the end of 2027.
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